Polls? I thought dogs were suppose to p#*% on polls?
Funnily enough though, the dog camps are spinning the poll numbers in favour of their own camps. Shocking.RECAP (to be submitted to the Associated Press Immediately):
Dion, in 4th going into the convention is a certain lock to win, as he, being in 4th -has the most room for growth. Kennedy on the other hand is guaranteed to win as only 2% of those polled say they definitely would not vote for him, you can't argue against that logic. This is especially true, i.e. truer than 100%, seeing as the majority of those polled were from Ontario and Quebec - not Kennedy strongholds. Therefore, Kennedy has a 110% chance to win. Finally, and this just in, Rae has already been declared winner, yep that's right, save your plane fare!, save your delegate fees!, Rae has officially been declared winner because as we all know A + B = C, and Rae has 3 letters in his last name, on to mention his first, as such, C = B + A, and therefore Rae has already won. Oh yeah, and Ignatieff doesn't have a chance, because he is going into the convention with the most declared 1st ballot votes, the most ex-officio votes and requires the least amount bleeding in order to win. Not a chance in hell. The guy is dreaming. Anyone who thinks he can win is a total Cuckoo-head.
END OF RECAP
Dogs are the ones suppose to piss on polls, instead, they are humping up alongside of it. It really is something to see.
I'll finish this post with an update on the current pinaclesports.com lines,
These lines actually hold water, as they are putting their money where their mouth is.
Michael Ignatieff -169 (an slight drop from the previous -185, yet still the only non-pooch - crazy cause he doesn't have a chance)
Bob Rae +228 (the biggest improvement from the +344 in Oct, this makes sense seeing as how he has already won)
Stephane Dion +1042 (big drop from the earlier +785, time to make some money on this ticket, as he is a certain lock to win)
Gerard Kennedy +1213 (another drop from +900, it doesn't make sense - He's guaranteed!)
Ken Dryden +20000
Scott Brison +40000
Joe Volpe +30000
Martha Hall Findlay +50000
8 Comments:
Hey! Welcome to Liblogs!
I was hoping that you'd join that list eventually - you're a good blogger.
Enough sunshine up your butt though - this post sucked hard.
The Dion camp isn't spinning the poll that you're referring to. The frigging polling company suggested that this poll was huge news for Dion, since it indicates that he has the most second ballot support, and that the frontrunner has almost none.
Besides that, the poll didn't say that Dion has more growth potential because he has further to go, as you suggest. That is a gross misreading.
Dion has the most potential for growth because he came first in both second-place and third-place votes amongst those polled. Obviously, in a multi-ballot affair, that is huge.
That said, for those of us that chose our candidate based on us wanting them to win rather than thinking that they were going to win, a positive or negative poll really doesn't affect our support for them.
Brad, you jerk, now everyone is going to vote for Gerard and the odds will fall accordingly (seriously, I bookmarked the odds weeks ago, and was excited when Gerard went from a 9 to 1 to 12 to 1 longshot). I was hoping to make some major coin, you have wrecked it for me. No more damage please, leave Liblogs at once!
RobEdger, you are getting closer to outrageous spin (it must be the influence of the other Stéphane Dion Blog Campaign Co-Chair, Jason Cherniak).
Since Dion has the least support (16%) of the top 4, he automatically has the most potential for second and third ballot support (100%-16%=84%). The sad part is Dion only gets 31% of that 84% on the second and third ballots (IF the right people drop off), thus an additional 26% (31% of 84%) to the 16% leaves Dion with a maximum/overstated 42%.
But then you need to adjust for the 13% of Dion delegates the EKOS poll found who are not going to be in Montreal (note: unlike Gerard's delegates who the EKOS poll found were found to be "fiercely loyal, determined to come to the convention and convinced he is the man to beat the Conservatives in the next election").
MississaugaPeter
Rae has won unless a miracle occurs for Dion, but Iggy can't win this poll is also huge in its sample size. Samples are often 1000 out of 20 million voters for elections this sample was 1230 or there aboouts out of 5000, massive to say the least. Sorry to burst your bubble but when 23% of delegates want anyone but you to win you aint gonna win. Iggy's growth is incremental after the first ballot and in no scenario can he win. Do the math yourself and keep in mind like I said that the sample size for this poll is massive, not like a traditional political poll at all. And I'm not in Rae's camp at all. I am a Dryden delegate with Dion as my second. No spin at all. shoshana
Shoshana,
Does that mean you will not be in Montreal?
Everybody is spinning. If you don't say your spinning, then you are. And if you do say your spinning, then you would be correct.
Except maybe for Peter, he just wants to make a little scratch during all the commotion.
The story at the convention, will be the same as what was prognosticated by many the day after the delegate selection weekend:
Ignatieff will incrementally increase his share after each ballot, eventually claiming the leadership after the 5th, 6th or 7th ballot.
Peter:
How am I spinning? I have the same opinion about the poll as the polling company and the journalist who wrote the article. This is outrageous spin? Are EKOS and the Toronto Star spinning?
Also, Peter, I really want you to read the next part slowly: Dion has the most potential for growth because he has the most delegates who rate him second, and the most delegates who rate him third. It's not because he is behind.
I've seen you post erroneously about this all over the internet. Just to save yourself from further embarrasment, I would suggest that you roll the information that I have helpfully put in bold for you through your head until you understand it. Once you understand that info, feel free to post on the topic. The phrase "mea culpa" might be a good start.
Not everybody is spinning. Some of us are just able to draw the same obvious conclusions from the poll that the polling firm and the Toronto Star did.
I'm not spinning I want Dion to win if Dryden can't, which he can't, but neither can Dion barring a miracle on Viger St and St. Laurent. The numbers say Rae wins. Period. Look at the second support from the final four other than Iggy, he can't win. It just isn't there.
Yes I'm going Peter to vote for the Red Ribbon Commision and for a new President of the Liberal Party and to vote for Ken, then Stephane. Who knows maybe a miracle will occur, but I doubt it. Rae has won and has the momentum of endorsements.
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